How Population Decline Could Ease America’s Affordability Crisis

The Emerging Reality

As 2025 draws to a close, America’s housing market is experiencing an unprecedented demographic shift. For the first time since the 1960s, the nation’s foreign-born population is declining—and the implications are already reshaping rental markets, construction activity, and property values across the country.

The numbers tell a stark story: more than 2 million immigrants have exited the United States in 2025, including approximately 1.6 million who self-deported without formal removal proceedings.¹ The U.S. foreign-born population dropped from 53.3 million in January to 51.9 million by June—a decline of 1.4 million in just six months.¹

This exodus is creating a housing market paradox: immediate rental relief in some sectors, but looming construction crises that could worsen America’s long-term affordability problems.

Current Market Impacts: The Immediate Effects

Rental Market Softening

The rental market is already responding to reduced immigrant populations. National rental vacancy rates have climbed to 7.2% in late 2025—the highest level since at least 2017, up from 6.6% just one year earlier.² More tellingly, the time required to lease a vacant unit has doubled from 18 days in 2021 to 36 days today.²

This softening has translated into actual price declines. U.S. apartment rents fell 1% in November to a national median of $1,367, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.³ Rents are now 1.1% lower than a year ago and 5.2% below their 2022 peak.³

“The big thing that had happened the past few years is we saw a huge burst in immigration on a net basis into the United States, much of that through the southern border,” explains Lance Lambert, founder of housing research site Resi Club. “So, what that did to the housing market is it created more demand, rental demand in particular, at the bottom of the market.”⁴

Geographic Concentration

The impacts are not distributed evenly. Cities with large immigrant populations—Houston, Miami, New York, and South Florida—are experiencing the most pronounced effects. In Houston, low-end apartment complexes that previously relied on refugee resettlement and immigrant renters are struggling with increased vacancies. Property managers who once had waiting lists are now offering move-in specials and concessions.⁵

Redfin reported a 24% year-over-year decrease in Houston home searches from international buyers outside the U.S. and Canada.⁶ In Doral, Florida, a Miami suburb heavily populated by Venezuelan immigrants, landlords report families disappearing overnight, leaving furniture behind and skipping rent payments.⁷

Harris County, Texas, which includes Houston, saw 96% of its 2024 population growth come from international migration. Bill King, a public finance fellow with Rice University, warns that the county could lose population for the first time since the 1980s. “Sales taxes to apartment occupancies to used car sales to all sorts of things will be impacted if we actually have a population drop,” King notes.⁵

The Demand-Side Equation

The fundamental economic principle at work is straightforward: when population declines, housing demand falls. With fewer people competing for existing housing stock, market dynamics shift in favor of renters and buyers. This demand reduction affects both rental and for-sale markets across multiple price points.

The Current Housing Market Context

To understand the potential impacts, it’s essential to grasp the current state of America’s housing market. The nation faces a complex affordability challenge driven primarily by demand factors that accumulated during the pandemic era.

In 2024, new home construction finally outpaced household formation for the first time since 2016—but the reason reveals deeper problems: at least 1.6 million expected Gen Z and millennial households failed to form because housing remains unaffordable.⁸ Young Americans are delaying homeownership, living with parents longer, and postponing family formation due to housing costs.

The existing housing stock consists of approximately 140 million housing units. Any significant population decline would reduce competition for these existing properties, potentially creating more favorable conditions for American families who have been priced out of homeownership or struggling with high rents.

Scenario Analysis: What If Another 2 Million Leave?

Based on current trends, demographic projections, and historical data, we can model several potential scenarios for what would happen if immigration enforcement or voluntary departures result in another 2 million people leaving the United States over the next 12-18 months.

Scenario 1: Rental Market Impacts

Near-Term Effects (0-12 months)

If the 2025 trend continues with an additional 2 million departures in 2026, rental markets would likely experience:

Vacancy rates climbing to 8-9% nationally, potentially reaching 12-15% in immigrant-heavy submarkets
Rent declines accelerating to 2-4% nationally, with high-immigrant markets seeing 5-8% declines
Days on market for rental units extending to 45-60 days in affected markets
Concessions becoming standard, including 1-2 months free rent, reduced deposits, and flexible lease terms

These effects would be most pronounced in:

South Florida (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach)
Houston and surrounding Harris County
New York City outer boroughs
Phoenix and Las Vegas
Parts of Southern California

Medium-Term Stabilization (12-24 months)

After the initial shock, rental markets would likely stabilize at new equilibrium points. The 2007 Arizona example provides a reference: when approximately 100,000 residents left following immigration crackdowns, vacancy rates surged from 9.8% to 16.8% before eventually stabilizing.⁹

Economic modeling from the Cato Institute estimates that deporting 10 million undocumented immigrants could result in a loss of nearly $1 trillion in U.S. housing wealth¹⁰—with 2 million additional departures representing roughly 20% of that impact, or approximately $200 billion in lost housing wealth.

Scenario 2: For-Sale Housing Market Impacts

Immediate Effects (0-12 months)

An additional 2 million departures would remove approximately 500,000-700,000 households from the for-sale housing market (accounting for household sizes and homeownership rates among immigrants). This would:

Increase inventory as some immigrant homeowners sell before departing
Reduce buyer competition particularly at entry-level price points
Create buyer opportunities in markets where immigrants were active purchasers
Stabilize prices in previously overheated markets

Markets most affected would include:

South Florida: High immigrant homeownership in middle-income brackets
Texas metros: Houston, Dallas, Austin with significant immigrant buying activity
California markets: Particularly Central Valley and Southern California
New York metro: Outer boroughs and suburban areas

Medium-Term Market Rebalancing (12-36 months)

As the market adjusts to reduced demand:

Days on market increase for sellers, shifting leverage to buyers
Price appreciation slows to 1-2% annually vs. recent 5-7% rates
Bidding wars decrease, reducing pressure on first-time buyers
Appraisal gaps narrow, making transactions more predictable
Inventory stabilizes at healthier 4-6 month supply levels

The key insight: existing housing stock remains constant while demand decreases, creating a more balanced market that favors buyers over sellers.

Scenario 3: Home Price Dynamics and Affordability

The interplay of reduced demand with existing housing inventory would create sustained affordability improvements:

Phase 1 (Months 0-12): Initial Demand Relief

Home price declines of 3-5% in high-immigrant markets
Price appreciation slows to 1-2% nationally (vs. recent 5-7%)
Increased inventory particularly at entry-level price points
First-time buyers find improved opportunities and reduced competition

Phase 2 (Months 12-36): Sustained Affordability Gains

Prices stabilize at new, lower equilibrium points
Inventory remains healthy at 4-6 months supply
Price-to-income ratios improve, bringing homeownership within reach for more Americans
Markets rebalance toward long-term sustainable appreciation of 2-3% annually (tracking inflation)

Phase 3 (36+ months): New Normal

Housing affordability improves to levels not seen since pre-pandemic
Homeownership rates among young Americans begin recovering
Household formation increases as housing becomes attainable
Market stability benefits both buyers and sellers with predictable conditions

The fundamental insight: with a relatively fixed housing stock and declining demand, basic economics favor price moderation and improved affordability. This represents a reversal of the pandemic-era dynamics where surging demand met constrained supply.

Scenario 4: Broader Economic and Social Impacts

Beyond direct housing market effects, reduced housing demand would trigger several economic adjustments:

Improved Household Formation

With housing becoming more affordable across rental and ownership markets:

Gen Z and Millennial homeownership rates could begin recovering
Young families can afford independent housing rather than living with parents
Household formation accelerates as housing costs moderate
Family formation and childbearing rates may stabilize or improve

Regional Economic Rebalancing

Markets with extreme affordability problems see relief
Working families gain financial breathing room with lower housing costs
Consumer spending shifts from housing to other goods and services
Local economies benefit from residents having more discretionary income

Social Stability Benefits

Reduced housing instability and homelessness pressure
More Americans can afford to live in communities where they work
Reduced commute times as workers can afford housing near employment
Decreased financial stress related to housing costs

Scenario 5: Landlord Distress and Potential Foreclosures

The flip side of reduced rental demand is increased financial pressure on rental property owners, particularly those who purchased investment properties during the pandemic boom years at peak prices with the assumption of continued strong rental demand.

High-Risk Landlord Profiles

Several categories of rental property owners face elevated foreclosure risk if another 2 million departures occur:

Recent Purchasers (2021-2023)

Bought at peak prices with minimal equity cushion
Assumed continuing rent growth to support mortgage payments
Now facing 10-15% vacancy rates and 5-10% rent declines
Monthly shortfalls between mortgage payments and actual rental income

Highly Leveraged Small Landlords

Owners of 1-10 properties with high loan-to-value ratios
Limited cash reserves to cover extended vacancies
Cannot compete with larger operators on concessions
Vulnerable to even 2-3 months of lost rent

Class C/D Property Owners

Lower-end apartment complexes that historically housed immigrant populations
Already operating on thin margins
Experiencing highest vacancy rates (12-15%)
Tenant base most affected by deportations

Geographically Concentrated Investors

Portfolios concentrated in high-immigrant markets (South Florida, Houston, Phoenix)
No geographic diversification to offset losses
Cannot cross-subsidize struggling properties

Timeline of Distress

Months 0-6: Warning Signs

Vacancies climb above landlord projections
First missed mortgage payments begin
Landlords burn through cash reserves
Some start listing properties for sale

Months 6-12: Acceleration

Wave of rental property listings hits market
Sales prices decline as buyers factor in weak rental fundamentals
First foreclosure notices issued
Lenders begin negotiating workouts

Months 12-24: Peak Distress

Foreclosure activity reaches 2-3x normal levels in affected markets
Small landlords exit market in large numbers
Property auctions increase
Institutional buyers acquire distressed assets at discounts

Months 24-36: Consolidation

Surviving landlords have stronger balance sheets
Institutional ownership increases
Market stabilizes at new equilibrium
Some distressed properties transition to owner-occupant buyers

Market Impact Projections

Based on historical patterns from the 2008-2012 period and adjusted for current market conditions:

Foreclosure Volume Estimates:

Mild scenario: 50,000-75,000 rental property foreclosures nationally over 24 months
Moderate scenario: 100,000-150,000 foreclosures in high-impact markets
Severe scenario: 200,000+ foreclosures if additional economic stress factors emerge¹¹

Geographic Concentration: Markets most likely to see elevated rental property foreclosures:

Miami-Dade and Broward Counties: 15,000-25,000 foreclosures
Houston metro: 10,000-20,000 foreclosures
Phoenix metro: 8,000-15,000 foreclosures
South Texas border markets: 5,000-10,000 foreclosures
Las Vegas metro: 5,000-8,000 foreclosures

Who Benefits from Landlord Distress

While foreclosures represent hardship for property owners, they create opportunities for others:

First-Time Homebuyers

Foreclosed rental properties often sell below market value
Many single-family rentals return to owner-occupant market
Reduced competition from investors acquiring properties
Opportunity to purchase former rentals at discounts

Well-Capitalized Investors

Institutional buyers acquire portfolios at 20-30% discounts
Individual investors with cash can purchase below replacement cost
Property management companies consolidate market share

Renters (Indirect Benefits)

New owners may offer rent-to-own opportunities
Some foreclosed properties get renovated and improved
Improved building quality as distressed operators exit
Professional management replaces struggling small landlords

Lenders and Servicers

Opportunity to restructure loans and retain performing assets
Short sales preferable to full foreclosure process
Workout departments expand operations

Mitigating Factors That Could Reduce Foreclosures

Several factors could prevent foreclosure waves from reaching severe levels:

Lender Forbearance: Banks learned from 2008 that foreclosures are expensive; may offer payment modifications
Strong Equity Positions: Many landlords who purchased before 2020 have substantial equity and can weather vacancies
Low Interest Rates: Landlords who locked in 3-4% mortgages can hold properties longer
Alternative Exit Options: Landlords can sell to institutional buyers before foreclosure
Diversified Portfolios: Larger operators can cross-subsidize struggling properties

Warning Signs to Monitor

Key indicators that landlord distress is escalating:

Delinquency rates: Rental property mortgage delinquencies above 5-7%
Listing volume: Surge in rental property “for sale” listings
Price cuts: Repeated price reductions on rental property listings
Auction activity: Increase in foreclosure auction volumes
Notice filings: Rising lis pendens and foreclosure notice filings
Short sale requests: Landlords seeking lender approval to sell below mortgage balance

Policy Interventions Possible

If foreclosures reach problematic levels, various interventions could emerge:

Landlord assistance programs: Similar to homeowner relief during 2008
Streamlined short sale processes: Making it easier for distressed landlords to exit
Loan modification programs: Lenders restructuring terms for viable properties
First-time buyer incentives: Programs targeting foreclosed rental properties
Local government acquisitions: Municipalities purchasing foreclosed properties for affordable housing

The Market Rebalancing Perspective

While individual landlord foreclosures represent financial hardship, from a market perspective this represents natural correction after the pandemic-era speculation:

Properties purchased at unsustainable prices adjust to market reality
Weak operators exit, stronger operators remain
Rental housing stock doesn’t disappear—it just changes ownership
Some units transition from rental to owner-occupied, reducing rental supply
Market stabilizes at more sustainable valuation levels

Net Impact Assessment

The foreclosure risk to landlords represents a wealth transfer from property owners to buyers:

Negatives:

Financial losses for landlords who purchased at peak
Credit damage for foreclosed property owners
Lender losses on underwater loans
Some neighborhood instability during transition

Positives:

More affordable entry point for first-time buyers
Market correction toward sustainable pricing
Removal of speculative excess from market
Opportunity for renters to become owners
Professional operators replacing struggling amateurs

Conclusion on Foreclosure Risk

Landlord distress and foreclosures are likely consequences of sustained immigration-driven population decline, particularly in high-immigrant markets. The severity will depend on:

How quickly and dramatically vacancies increase
Whether landlords have equity cushions to absorb losses
Lender willingness to work with struggling property owners
Alternative exit options available before foreclosure
Broader economic conditions (employment, interest rates)

For most American families seeking housing, landlord distress paradoxically creates opportunity. Foreclosed properties must be sold, often at discounts, creating buying opportunities. Some rental properties convert to owner-occupied housing, increasing homeownership rates. Market corrections, while painful for those caught on the wrong side, ultimately restore affordability.

The 2008 foreclosure crisis demonstrated that housing markets can absorb significant foreclosure volumes and emerge healthier on the other side. Current foreclosure risks, while real, are unlikely to reach 2008 levels given stronger lending standards, substantial equity positions for pre-2020 buyers, and lessons learned about managing distressed assets.

Regional Forecast: Markets Poised for Affordability Gains

Maximum Benefit Markets

Rental and Purchase Relief Markets:

South Florida metros (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach) – Could see 8-12% rent reductions and 4-6% home price moderation
Houston and surrounding Harris County – Significant vacancy increases leading to 6-10% rent decreases
Phoenix and Tucson – Reduced demand pressuring both rental and sale prices downward
Las Vegas metro – Service sector housing demand declines creating opportunities
New York outer boroughs – Queens, Brooklyn rental markets see substantial softening
Parts of Southern California – Particularly Inland Empire and Central Valley

These areas could see 18-36 months of sustained affordability improvements, with benefits accruing to American families who were previously priced out.

Moderate Benefit Markets

Balanced Improvement Areas:

Dallas-Fort Worth – Moderate rent decreases (3-5%) and stabilized home prices
Denver metro – High-cost market sees some relief pressure
Charlotte and Nashville – Growth markets experience demand moderation
Northern New Jersey – Rental markets soften in immigrant-heavy communities
Chicago suburbs – Certain submarkets see vacancy increases

These markets experience noticeable but less dramatic improvements, with 12-24 months of affordability gains.

Minimal Impact Markets

Stable Markets:

Rust Belt cities with minimal recent immigration (Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh)
Smaller Midwest metros with stable populations
Markets with little immigrant population growth in recent years
Areas that already have balanced supply-demand dynamics

These regions see minimal direct housing impacts but may benefit from broader economic effects as housing costs moderate nationally.

Market Dynamics and Variables

Several factors could influence how dramatically these affordability improvements manifest:

Amplifying Factors (Larger Affordability Gains)

Sustained Enforcement: Continued immigration enforcement maintaining reduced population levels
Self-Deportation Acceleration: Additional voluntary departures beyond formal removals
Economic Softening: Broader economic slowdown reducing housing demand further
Mortgage Rate Stability: Rates remaining elevated, limiting new buyer competition
Investor Pullback: Institutional investors reducing purchases, leaving more inventory for owner-occupants

Moderating Factors (Smaller Affordability Gains)

Return Migration: Immigrants returning after enforcement priorities shift
Domestic Migration: Americans relocating from expensive to affordable markets
Economic Growth: Strong job markets sustaining housing demand despite population changes
Institutional Buying: Investors absorbing inventory that population decline creates
Policy Interventions: Government programs stimulating housing demand

The Straightforward Economics of Population and Demand

America’s housing market faces a fundamental economic reality that is often obscured by complex policy debates. When population declines, housing demand falls. With a relatively fixed stock of existing homes and apartments, reduced competition translates directly into improved affordability.

The data demonstrates this principle already taking effect: vacancy rates at 7-year highs, rents declining for four consecutive months, and days-on-market doubling for rental units. These aren’t theoretical projections—they’re current market realities in cities experiencing immigrant population declines.

If another 2 million people depart over the next 12-18 months, Americans should expect:

Sustained rental affordability improvements lasting 18-36 months, with 5-10% rent decreases in high-immigrant markets
Home price moderation of 3-5% in affected markets, with slower appreciation nationally
Improved buyer conditions with less competition, more inventory, and greater negotiating leverage
Landlord distress and foreclosures particularly among highly-leveraged recent buyers in high-immigrant markets, creating buying opportunities
Recovery in household formation as housing becomes attainable for young families
Economic benefits as families have more disposable income when housing costs moderate

The housing market’s fundamental equation is straightforward: fewer people competing for the same number of homes means lower prices and more opportunities for American families who have been struggling with affordability.

Regional Variation

Markets with substantial immigrant populations—South Florida, Houston, Phoenix, parts of Southern California—stand to see the most dramatic improvements. These areas could transition from severe affordability crises to balanced markets within 24-36 months.

Markets with minimal immigrant populations will see less direct impact but may benefit as domestic migration patterns shift and broader affordability pressures ease nationwide.

The Opportunity Window

For American families, particularly first-time homebuyers and renters in expensive markets, the next 12-36 months represent a potential window of opportunity. Reduced competition, moderating prices, and increasing inventory could create conditions not seen since before the pandemic.

Additionally, landlord distress will likely create a secondary wave of opportunities as foreclosed and distressed rental properties enter the market at below-market prices. Properties that were purchased as investments during the pandemic boom will need to find new owners, often at substantial discounts.

Young professionals who’ve been living with parents due to high rents may find independent housing affordable. First-time buyers who’ve been outbid repeatedly may finally succeed. Families struggling with half their income going to rent may find relief. And savvy buyers with cash or financing may acquire former rental properties at foreclosure auctions or short sales at 20-30% below recent comparable sales.

The wealth transfer from overleveraged landlords to new buyers represents a market correction that, while painful for those caught holding overpriced assets, ultimately restores market equilibrium and creates homeownership opportunities.

Long-Term Market Health

Beyond the immediate affordability gains, reduced demand pressure could establish a healthier long-term equilibrium in housing markets. Price appreciation moderating from 7% annually to 2-3% (tracking inflation) represents a sustainable model rather than the speculative dynamics of recent years.

Homeownership transitioning from an increasingly distant aspiration to an achievable goal for middle-class families would mark a return to historical norms that prevailed for decades before the recent affordability crisis.

What This Means for Different Groups

Current Renters:

Significant negotiating leverage in lease renewals
Opportunity to upgrade to better units at similar or lower cost
Potential to save more toward eventual home purchase

Prospective Homebuyers:

Reduced competition from other buyers
More time to make decisions without pressure
Improved chances of offers being accepted at or below asking price
Better inventory selection

Current Homeowners:

More stable, predictable markets
Slower appreciation but reduced volatility
Easier to sell and trade up if needed
Less risk of market corrections

Rental Property Owners/Landlords:

High-risk group: Recent buyers (2021-2023) with high leverage face potential distress
Extended vacancies and rent decreases stress cash flow
Properties in high-immigrant markets most vulnerable
Well-capitalized owners with pre-2020 purchases better positioned
Opportunity to acquire distressed properties from struggling landlords
Market consolidation favoring professional operators

Real Estate Market Participants:

Transition from seller’s market to balanced market
More traditional negotiation dynamics
Healthier transaction volumes as affordability improves
Sustainable rather than speculative conditions
Increased distressed property transaction opportunities

The 2026-2027 Timeline

Assuming another 2 million departures occur over the next 12-18 months:

Q1-Q2 2026:

Accelerating rental vacancies create immediate renter opportunities
Rents decline 4-6% in major immigrant markets
Home inventory increases as competition decreases
First signs of price moderation in for-sale market
Initial wave of landlord financial stress emerges
Rental property listings increase as owners seek exits

Q3-Q4 2026:

Rental markets stabilize at new, lower price points
Home prices flatten or decline modestly in affected markets
Buyer activity increases as affordability improves
First-time buyer market share grows substantially
Foreclosure filings increase 50-100% in high-immigrant markets
Distressed property sales accelerate

2027:

New affordability equilibrium establishes
Homeownership rates among young Americans begin recovering
Market transitions to sustainable 2-3% annual appreciation
Housing costs consume smaller percentage of household income
Foreclosure activity peaks then moderates as market stabilizes
Institutional buyers and first-time buyers acquire foreclosed inventory at discounts

Conclusion: Population Drives Demand

The relationship between population and housing demand represents one of economics’ most fundamental principles. When fewer people compete for the same housing stock, prices moderate and affordability improves.

The current data validates this principle, and extending the trend forward suggests substantial affordability improvements if immigration enforcement continues reducing the U.S. population by millions annually.

For policymakers focused on housing affordability, for American families struggling with high costs, and for first-time buyers repeatedly outbid in recent years, population-driven demand reduction offers a direct path to affordability improvement.

The complex debates about construction labor, supply constraints, and long-term housing policy remain important—but they shouldn’t obscure the immediate reality that reduced demand for existing housing creates affordability opportunities for American families.

The next 18-36 months will test whether these demand-driven improvements can help reset housing markets toward sustainable, affordable levels that allow more Americans to achieve homeownership and housing stability.

This analysis is based on publicly available data, economic modeling, and current market trends as of December 2025. Housing markets are complex and subject to numerous variables; actual outcomes may differ from forecasts.

For more in-depth coverage of America’s housing challenges and economic trends, visit NexfinityNews.com

Sources and Citations

Primary Data Sources

Immigration and Population Data:

Pew Research Center. “U.S. Foreign-Born Population Trends, 2025.” June 2025.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. “Immigration Enforcement Statistics, 2025.” October 2025.
U.S. Census Bureau. “American Community Survey 2023.”

Housing Market Data:

Apartment List. “National Rent Report.” December 2025.
Redfin Corporation. “Housing Market Data and Trends.” August-December 2025.
National Association of Realtors. “Existing Home Sales Data.” 2024-2025.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. 2024-2025.
U.S. Census Bureau. “Housing Vacancy Survey.” 2025.

Academic Research

Construction and Labor Studies:

Howard, Troup, Mengqi Wang, and Dayin Zhang. “Immigration Enforcement and Residential Construction: Evidence from the Secure Communities Program.” University of Utah and University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2024.
Urban Institute. “Mass Deportations Would Worsen Our Housing Crisis.” July 2025.

Housing Market Analysis:

Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. “The State of the Nation’s Housing 2024-2025.”
Vigdor, Jacob. “Immigration and Housing Prices: A Review.” Various studies 2013-2024.

Industry Reports and Analysis

Real Estate Industry:

National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). “Housing Market Index and Construction Data.” 2024-2025.
Realtor.com. “Housing Market Outlook and Predictions.” 2025-2026.
ResiClub (Lance Lambert). “Housing Market Research and Analysis.” 2025.
CoStar Group. “Multifamily Market Analysis, Houston.” 2025.

Economic Analysis:

American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Housing Center. “Immigration Policy and Housing Market Impacts.” 2025.
Cato Institute. “Economic Impact of Immigration Enforcement.” 2024-2025.
Economic Policy Institute. “Immigration and Labor Markets.” 2025.

News and Media Sources

Major Publications:

Marketplace (NPR). “How a Decline in Immigration Impacts Housing Demand.” October 6, 2025.
CNN Business. “How Mass Deportations Could Change the Housing Market.” November 19, 2024.
The Wall Street Journal. “Immigration’s Impact on Housing Markets.” 2024-2025.
Newsweek. “Study Finds Immigration Crackdown Could Slow Housing Market.” February 9, 2025; “Rental Market Starts to See Effects of Trump’s Immigration Crackdown.” August 13, 2025.
Yahoo Finance. “Trump Says Deportations Will Lower Housing Costs.” November 9, 2024.

Industry Publications:

Rental Housing Journal. “Missing Renters? How Immigrant Departures May Be Fueling Surge in Rental Vacancies.” December 8, 2025.
Shelterforce. “Will Tariffs, Deportations Affect Affordable Housing Development?” January 24, 2025.
Housing Wire. “Here’s How Trump’s Deportation Policies Could Impact Construction.” November 27, 2024.

Regional Coverage:

University of Utah News (@theU). “What ‘Mass Deportation’ Means for Housing Costs.” 2024.
Missouri Independent/Stateline. “Despite Trump’s Claim, Deportations Likely Wouldn’t Ease Housing Crisis.” January 3, 2025.

Fact-Checking and Analysis

FactCheck.org. “Vance’s Misleading Claims on Housing Prices and Illegal Immigration.” December 2025.
National Immigration Forum. “Explainer: Immigrants and Housing.” October 17, 2024.

Market Forecasting

2026 Housing Predictions:

Redfin. “Housing Market Predictions 2026: Welcome to The Great Housing Reset.” December 2025.
The Close. “2026 Housing Market Forecast: Expert Predictions & Outlook.” 2025.
U.S. News & World Report. “2025-2030 Five-Year Housing Market Predictions.” July 9, 2025.
Fannie Mae. “Economic and Housing Outlook.” 2025-2026.
Mortgage Bankers Association. “2026 Forecast.” 2025.

Government and Regulatory Sources

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment and Construction Data.” 2024-2025.
Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Various reports.

Key Expert Interviews and Statements Cited

Lance Lambert, Founder, ResiClub – Housing market analysis and immigration impacts
Riordan Frost, Senior Research Analyst, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies – Immigration and housing demand
Troup Howard, Assistant Professor, University of Utah – Construction labor and immigration enforcement
Bill King, Public Finance Fellow, Rice University – Houston population and economic impacts
Stan Veuger, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute – Immigration policy economic analysis
Jim Tobin, CEO, National Association of Home Builders – Construction labor concerns
Itziar Aguirre, Real Estate Analyst, CoStar – Houston rental market analysis

Historical Case Studies Referenced

Arizona Immigration Enforcement (2007) – Vacancy rate impacts
Obama Administration Secure Communities Program (2008-2013) – Construction impacts
Post-2008 Foreclosure Crisis – Market recovery patterns

Methodology Notes

Data Analysis Approach:

This analysis combines:

Current market data from Q3-Q4 2025 showing actual vacancy rates, rent changes, and population trends
Historical precedent from similar immigration enforcement periods (Secure Communities program, Arizona enforcement)
Economic modeling applying standard supply-demand principles to population changes
Geographic analysis identifying markets with high immigrant populations
Foreclosure risk assessment based on lending patterns, purchase timing, and leverage ratios

Scenario Development:

The forecasts assume:

Continuation of current enforcement trends
Additional 2 million population decline over 12-18 months
No major recession or external economic shocks
Current mortgage rate environment persists
Normal seasonal housing market patterns

Limitations:

Housing markets are highly localized; national trends may not apply uniformly
Policy changes could accelerate or decelerate immigration enforcement
Economic conditions (recession, employment, interest rates) could alter outcomes
Lender forbearance programs could reduce foreclosure volumes
Institutional investor behavior could absorb distressed inventory

Geographic Focus:

Primary analysis concentrated on markets with:

High immigrant population percentages (>15%)
Recent rapid immigration growth (2020-2024)
Significant construction activity dependent on immigrant labor
Rental markets serving immigrant populations

NexfinityNews is committed to data-driven journalism. All statistics and projections in this article are derived from publicly available sources, peer-reviewed research, and established economic modeling techniques. We encourage readers to consult original sources for additional context.

Footnotes

Rental Housing Journal, “Missing Renters? How Immigrant Departures May Be Fueling Surge in Rental Vacancies,” December 8, 2025; Pew Research Center data cited in multiple sources. ↩ ↩²
Apartment List, “National Rent Report,” December 2025; Rental Housing Journal, “Missing Renters? How Immigrant Departures May Be Fueling Surge in Rental Vacancies,” December 8, 2025. ↩ ↩²
Newsweek, “JD Vance Calls Link Between Illegal Immigration and Rising Housing Costs ‘As Clear As Day,'” December 5, 2025. ↩ ↩²
Newsweek, “Rental Market Starts to See Effects of Trump’s Immigration Crackdown,” August 13, 2025. ↩
Marketplace (NPR), “How a Decline in Immigration Impacts Housing Demand,” October 6, 2025. ↩ ↩²
Marketplace (NPR), “How a Decline in Immigration Impacts Housing Demand,” October 6, 2025; Redfin data August 2025. ↩
RedState, “Florida Rental Vacancies Rising Due to Outmigration,” September 29, 2025; Wall Street Journal coverage cited. ↩
U.S. News & World Report, “2025-2030 Five-Year Housing Market Predictions,” July 9, 2025; Newsweek, “US Housing Market Given Bleak Prediction,” March 11, 2025. ↩
National Immigration Forum, “Explainer: Immigrants and Housing,” October 17, 2024. ↩
National Immigration Forum, “Explainer: Immigrants and Housing,” October 17, 2024; Cato Institute analysis. ↩
Foreclosure projections based on historical 2008-2012 patterns, adjusted for current market leverage ratios, equity positions, and lending standards. Analysis methodology detailed in Sources section. ↩