After the Midterms, Which Data Centers Get Stuck and Which Get Moved

Introduction

The Nov. 3 midterms did not shut down America’s AI data center buildout. They changed who signs the next permit.

Democrats won both chambers of Congress and governorships in Texas, Ohio, Georgia and New Mexico, where winning candidates campaigned on pausing or conditioning new data centers. Voters also sided against data center development in nearly every local ballot measure that came up, with Harwood, North Dakota the lone exception, according to Ballotpedia and CNBC.

This piece answers two questions: which projects are building capacity that the results can delay, and which may have to shelve plans or move.

The short answer is that exposure tracks the approval a project still needs, not the name of the company behind it. A campus with power, permits and steel in the ground is largely past the political risk. A campus still waiting on an air permit, a utility contract or a county site plan now answers to officials who ran against it.

Background: How Data Centers Became a Midterm Issue

AI data centers became a campaign issue because of electricity bills, water use and land.

In Georgia, voters had already flipped two Public Service Commission seats to Democrats in 2025 after six commission-approved Georgia Power rate increases. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott ordered ERCOT and the Public Utility Commission to audit data centers seeking grid connections in August, then on Sept. 21 directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to stop issuing data center permits until that audit was done, as the Texas Tribune reported.

The spending reflected the stakes. Axios, citing AdImpact, reported $173 million in general-election ads about data centers, almost all of them negative. A pro-AI group, Build American AI, spent at least $2.54 million on Ohio TV ads alone between Sept. 7 and Oct. 21, according to Fortune.

At the local level, Ballotpedia counted 41 data center measures in 10 states on the Nov. 3 ballot. Ohio accounted for 21 of them. Other trackers count 45 or more because they include measures decided earlier in the year. All local results cited here are unofficial.

What Changed on Election Night

The results moved decision-making authority in the four states holding most of the at-risk pipeline.

State	Winner	Data center position	Takes office	Key lever
Texas	Gina Hinojosa (D) defeated Gov. Greg Abbott, about 52.8% to 45.7% (unofficial)	Moratorium on all data center approvals until the Legislature passes protections	Jan. 19, 2027	Appointments to TCEQ, PUC and Water Development Board; a permit freeze already in place
Ohio	Amy Acton (D) defeated Vivek Ramaswamy	“Conditional moratorium”: 100% of utility costs, union labor, no NDAs, environmental standards	Jan. 11, 2027	Appoints all five PUCO commissioners and the governor’s picks on the Ohio Power Siting Board
Georgia	Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) defeated Rick Jackson	Temporary statewide pause to study impacts; not a permanent halt	Jan. 11, 2027, with the General Assembly’s opening	Governor’s office; Democrats hold 3 of 5 PSC seats from January after Peter Hubbard and Sheila Edwards won
New Mexico	Deb Haaland (D)	Executive-order moratorium on new large-scale projects until rules exist	Jan. 1, 2027	State environment department and permitting

Sources: Texas Tribune, Dayton Daily News, WYSU, WABE, Fox 5 Atlanta, Rough Draft Atlanta, Albuquerque Journal.

In Ohio’s Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeated Sen. Jon Husted after backing an end to data center tax breaks. In Wisconsin, Gov.-elect David Crowley shifted during the campaign to support a moratorium and the repeal of the state’s sales-tax exemption for data centers, according to the Associated Press.

Legislatures matter as much as governors, because the strongest pledges need new laws. In Texas, Democrats won the state House while Republicans held the Senate 19–12, according to the Associated Press as reported by Fox 26 Houston. Any moratorium statute or tax-break repeal would need Republican votes in the Senate. In Georgia, Democrats claimed a state House majority, though some races were close enough for recounts.

Hinojosa has not softened her position since winning. Two days after the election, she told CNN that Texas needs to stop what it is doing with data centers until protections are in law.

In simple terms: a data center needs several government sign-offs before it can run power, water, air, zoning. Tuesday changed who controls many of those sign-offs. Projects that already have them are mostly safe. Projects that don’t are now negotiating with skeptics.

The Policy Mechanics: Why the Permit Stage Decides the Risk

Analysts converge on the same sorting rule.

GLJ Research, as reported by Bloomberg, estimates about 13 GW of Texas capacity is immediately exposed. Its framework: projects with power, permits and steel continue; projects with power but no state environmental permits slip 12 to 18 months; projects with neither may relocate to Louisiana, Oklahoma or elsewhere.

SemiAnalysis projects 62.2 GW of U.S. net data center additions in 2028, most of it not yet under construction, and says Texas alone supplies close to 30% of that year’s gigawatts. It calls a prolonged TCEQ freeze the single biggest risk to the U.S. buildout. ERCOT is targeting Dec. 10 for its audit report, which does not by itself reopen permitting. If approvals stay on hold through the regular legislative session (Jan. 12 to May 31, 2027), the freeze would run about eight months from September.

Texas also illustrates an irony. The pause Hinojosa campaigned for already exists Abbott imposed it. Abbott’s directive has no megawatt threshold and no binding end date, and covers air, water and supporting-infrastructure permits, according to The Information. Procurement, leasing, financing and construction that need no new TCEQ authorization can continue. What changes on Jan. 19 is who decides when, and on what terms, the hold lifts.

In simple terms: in Texas, the brake was already on. The election decided who holds the pedal.

Projects Exposed: Texas

Texas carries the most exposed capacity. Wells Fargo estimates 27% of planned data center gigawatts are in the state, according to CNBC.

Project	Status	What it still needs
Stargate Abilene (OpenAI / Oracle; developer Crusoe)	Partly operational; first 200 MW energized September 2025	Major TCEQ air permit for 41 more turbines and 18 more generators, frozen
Hubbard (Nexus Data Centers, Hill County)	Rising	TCEQ air permit for its power plant, seeking up to 23 million tons of CO2 a year
Fermi’s Project Matador (Carson County, near Amarillo)	Under construction	Holds a 6 GW TCEQ air permit issued in February 2026; Nameplate Report lists a further gas application among those frozen
Goodnight	In development	TCEQ gas air permit, frozen
Project Aquila (RCM Hill, Hill County, 1,235 MW)	Not started; county moratorium rescinded in June after the developer sued	Freeze covers air, water and infrastructure permits
SB Energy, Borden and Scurry counties (~1.7 GW-IT)	Pipeline with secured ERCOT interconnection	Outside its contracted backlog; 803 MW under construction elsewhere in Texas
CenterPoint Houston large-load queue (~12 GW)	ERCOT “Batch Zero” review	Audit outcome; five developers have appealed rulings
Meta, El Paso ($14 billion)	Under construction	Hinojosa pledged to review contracts affecting El Paso’s water

Sources: Nameplate Report, Texas Tribune / Floodlight, Houston Chronicle, NewsChannel 10, KERA, SB Energy S-1/A, KFOX14.

Nameplate Report puts about 14.6 GW of gas generation in four frozen applications tied to Hubbard, Stargate Abilene, Fermi and Goodnight. The Abilene expansion permit is confirmed pending through Floodlight and Texas Tribune reporting. Fermi’s main 6 GW permit, by contrast, was issued seven months before the freeze.

The freeze has also leaked. The Houston Chronicle and Public Citizen found TCEQ advanced at least 16 data center-related permit applications after Abbott’s order, including air-permit notices for power plants serving VoltaGrid in Abilene, NRG Prairie Energy in Grandview and Nexus Hubbard. That record gives the incoming administration a ready-made reason to tighten enforcement rather than loosen it.

Projects Exposed: Ohio

Ohio has the largest single project at risk and the most local restrictions.

PORTS-Pike (OpenAI / SB Energy, Pike County, ~8 GW): the campus sits on federal land at the Energy Department’s former Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, with 9.2 GW of planned gas generation, according to Data Center Dynamics. SB Energy leased it to OpenAI for 20 years in August 2026, per its SEC filing. Utility agreements still need final approval and backup-generator air permits are outstanding; Acton will appoint the utility commissioners who rule on them.
Ashville / EdgeConneX: voters repealed the village’s agreement with the developer about 82% to 18% in unofficial results, according to Unite.AI, though the campus is already under construction. Its dedicated 800 MW gas plant is before the Ohio Power Siting Board (Case No. 26-196-EL-BGN).
PowerConneX gas plant, New Albany (450 MW): pending before the Power Siting Board.
Trenton: a ban on facilities over 25 MW passed with about 80%. It blocks a planned annexation for a 1,000 MW Amazon campus; local reports differ on whether it reaches a 250 MW facility already under construction in the city’s industrial park (Stock Analysis / WVXU, Fortune).
Sunbury: a 25 MW ban passed 78.6% to 21.4% in unofficial results. Amazon Web Services had proposed a $2 billion campus there. Delaware County’s official canvass is Nov. 17.
Oregon, Ohio: a 25 MW cap was on the ballot against Vantage Data Centers’ ~$1 billion proposal. Vantage gave $250,000 to the committee opposing it. Lucas County had not reported a result at last check.
Wilmington: voters rejected rezoning for about 546 acres across four referendums at about 80%. A separate $4 billion Amazon campus there is tied up in court over an emergency rezoning.

The pressure predates the election. Gov. Mike DeWine paused new data center tax exemptions in May after the program, projected to cost $136 million in 2025, cost nearly $1.6 billion, according to TechRadar. Projects already approved keep their benefits.

Projects Exposed: Georgia

Georgia’s exposure runs through the utility commission as much as the governor’s office.

Project Camellia (OpenAI affiliate Octans GA LLC, Effingham County, ~$20 billion): six buildings on about 1,347 acres, backed by a 3.2 GW Georgia Power contract. On Nov. 3, commissioners voted unanimously to table the site plan until Nov. 17, according to WTOC; a county moratorium discussion and a petition for a ban are also in play. Residents and conservation groups have sued the county development authority under Georgia’s open-meetings law. The PSC, with a Democratic majority from January, enforces the contract’s ratepayer guarantees.
Project Bunkhouse (Taurus DC SPE LLC, Bartow County, 1,830 MW, ~$19 billion): rezoned in June 2025 and the land has closed, but buildout is planned through 2035, leaving most of it exposed to a statewide pause.
Project Arrowhead (Irwin County, 1,250 MW) and Project Sail (Coweta County, 900 MW): not yet started, the category most exposed to a pause.
Georgia Power’s ~10 GW expansion: approved in December 2025, with 80% to 85% intended for data centers. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution expects the new PSC majority to revisit it.

Projects Exposed: New Mexico and Pennsylvania

Project Jupiter (Oracle / OpenAI, Doña Ana County) has been under construction in Santa Teresa while its air permit is contested. In April the developers swapped gas turbines for up to 2.45 GW of Bloom Energy fuel cells, restarting permitting. A public hearing is set for Dec. 7 before hearing officer James Browning, a retired federal judge, and NMED Deputy Secretary John Rhoderick will decide, according to the Albuquerque Journal. Developers had pressed for a November decision; the Santa Fe New Mexican reported that timeline now appears unlikely, which could put the ruling close to or after Haaland’s Jan. 1 inauguration. The state land commissioner, Haaland’s running mate Stephanie Garcia Richard, has twice denied a related pipeline application across state trust land.

In Pennsylvania, the shift happened before the election. Gov. Josh Shapiro’s Executive Order 2026-05, signed Aug. 18, removed data centers from the state’s Fast Track permitting program, barred state agencies from signing NDAs with developers, and requires projects over 25 MW applying after that date to sign a binding consent order. Shapiro said more than 100 projects have been proposed in the state; the order cites 20 that had sought state environmental permits.

Who Is Already Moving

Relocation is mostly a prospect, not yet a trend. One case is on record.

BaRupOn, a Texas developer, says it moved a $250 million Permian Basin data center to Wyoming after Abbott’s freeze. CEO Balaji Tammabattula told Forbes contributor David Blackmon that the company decided to “move the whole project to Wyoming” because the end customer would not locate where policy had become uncertain. The account comes from the company; NexfinityNews found no independent confirmation.

Where could others go? GLJ names Louisiana and Oklahoma. SemiAnalysis excluded Indiana, Missouri, Wyoming and West Virginia from its election-risk tiers. Abundance Economics Research notes 38 states offer dedicated data center tax incentives and models only a 2% shortfall in projected 2030 U.S. capacity if blocked projects relocate.

Those destinations carry their own approvals. Louisiana’s PSC is due to decide Entergy’s Hyperion docket on Dec. 16. Council votes are pending in Piedmont, Oklahoma. Bond referendums for two Clarksville, Arkansas projects are set for Dec. 1.

Industry voices urge caution about moving fast. Relocating a project that has already secured land, power agreements and capital is much harder than redirecting one still on paper, a point made by analysts interviewed by Fox News.

In simple terms: money that hasn’t been spent can move. Money already poured into concrete mostly can’t.

The Federal Layer

A Democratic Congress cannot halt a state-permitted data center. Its main tools are oversight and legislation.

Oversight: Holland & Knight expects data centers to become a major focus of Democratic oversight, including electricity demand, water use, residential utility costs and permitting.
Cost allocation: in September, the House voted 417-3 for a bill requiring states to consider making large-load data centers pay the full added cost of serving them.
Federal land: Senate Republicans blocked Sen. Ron Wyden’s bill to ban data centers on public lands on Oct. 1. Rep. Rashida Tlaib has proposed barring AI data centers on federal land, including military installations, according to Ashurst Perkins Coie. Projects on Energy Department sites are the most directly exposed to a new majority among them PORTS-Pike, which sits on DOE’s Portsmouth site in Ohio.

The new Congress is sworn in Jan. 3. Until then, the lame-duck session opens Nov. 9, which is when OpenAI planned to launch a post-election policy push, including community compacts and a proposal to rebrand its facilities as “AI compute campuses,” according to Axios.

Market Impact

Investors sorted the risk by balance sheet.

Data center operators and AI suppliers fell after the results, while hyperscalers initially held up, according to Reuters. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on Thursday, Nov. 5, as fears spread that political backlash could slow the buildout, according to The Motley Fool. Neocloud operators CoreWeave and Nebius fell sharply, while Amazon and Microsoft rose after election night (The Motley Fool).

The logic: a slower buildout raises the value of capacity already built and could restrain capital spending at the largest companies, while highly leveraged builders depend on new capacity coming online on schedule. Wells Fargo estimates that each 10% cut in planned Texas capacity reduces Big Tech AI infrastructure spending by about 1.6%, according to CNN.

Analysis

Three points stand out.

First, the risk is about stage, not brand. OpenAI is exposed in every state on this list Abilene, PORTS-Pike, Camellia and Jupiter but each project sits at a different stage. Abilene already runs its first 200 MW while its expansion permit waits. PORTS-Pike still needs utility approvals from commissioners Acton will appoint. Jupiter’s permit ruling could land on either side of Haaland’s inauguration.

Second, pauses rarely end cleanly. Abbott’s freeze has no end date. Shapiro’s order stays in place until amended or rescinded. Acton’s “conditional moratorium” is a default-no unless conditions are met, and some of it would require a Legislature she does not control. PIMCO’s Libby Cantrill expects “more sand in the gears” even without statewide moratoria: longer permits and more concessions.

Third, the counterargument is real. Data center investment has been a major source of U.S. growth this year, and pausing it carries economic cost, as Rice University’s Mark Jones and others have noted. Every winning governor also has incentives to keep some projects moving. Bottoms opposes a permanent halt, Acton has said Ohio is open for business, and Crowley once championed Wisconsin as an AI hub. Jefferies expects Texas lawmakers to raise costs on grid use, water and incentives more than block projects outright.

The most likely near-term outcome is not cancellation but repricing: developers paying more of their own grid costs, giving up NDAs and tax breaks, and accepting delay on sites that are not yet permitted.

Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event
Nov. 9	Lame-duck session of Congress opens
Nov. 17	Effingham County, Ga., takes up Project Camellia site plan; Delaware County, Ohio, certifies Sunbury result
Late November	Ohio certified results, about three weeks after the election
Dec. 7	Public hearing on Project Jupiter’s air permit
Dec. 10	ERCOT targets filing its data center audit report
Dec. 16	Louisiana PSC decision due on Entergy’s Hyperion docket
Jan. 1, 2027	Haaland sworn in (New Mexico)
Jan. 3, 2027	New Congress sworn in
Jan. 11, 2027	Acton (Ohio) and Bottoms (Georgia) sworn in
Jan. 12–May 31, 2027	Texas regular legislative session
Jan. 19, 2027	Hinojosa sworn in (Texas)

Conclusion

The midterms did not cancel the AI buildout. They moved the next decision for dozens of large projects into the hands of officials elected on promises to slow it.

The projects most likely to stall are those still waiting on a state air permit in Texas, a utility agreement in Ohio, or a site plan and power contract in Georgia. The projects most likely to relocate are those that have not yet broken ground. Projects already powered, permitted and under construction face higher costs and more scrutiny, but the clearest evidence so far suggests most of them will be finished.

Key Takeaways

Exposure depends on what approval a project still needs, not which company is behind it.
Texas is the biggest risk: roughly 27% to 30% of planned U.S. capacity, an open-ended TCEQ permit freeze, and a governor-elect who wants it extended until the Legislature acts.
Named projects waiting on approvals include Stargate Abilene’s expansion and Hubbard in Texas; OpenAI’s PORTS-Pike in Ohio; Project Camellia in Georgia; and Project Jupiter in New Mexico.
Unstarted Georgia projects (Arrowhead, Sail and most of Bunkhouse’s buildout) and Texas’s Project Aquila are the best candidates to be shelved or moved.
One relocation is on record so far: BaRupOn’s $250 million Permian Basin project, moved to Wyoming, per its CEO and not independently confirmed.
Markets punished leveraged neocloud operators more than cash-rich hyperscalers.