Three Years After October 7, Gaza Is on the Midterm Ballot

Introduction

Three years ago today, Hamas-led gunmen crossed from Gaza into southern Israel, killing roughly 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. In the days that followed, the U.S. House voted overwhelmingly to stand with Israel, and support for Israel’s right to respond was close to a bipartisan given in American politics.

Few would have predicted that, by the 2026 midterms, the war in Gaza would be a live campaign issue, that a Democratic Senate nominee in a battleground state would accuse Israel of genocide, and that the largest outside spender in the cycle would be a pro-Israel lobby whose backing some candidates now treat as a liability.

Gaza is not the dominant issue of the 2026 election. The economy, immigration and President Trump’s standing still drive most races. But the conflict has moved from the foreign-policy margins into primaries, fundraising pledges and Senate polling, and it has done so in both parties, though in very different ways.

Background: Where the War Stands

A U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect on Oct. 10, 2025, and the last 20 living hostages were returned under its first phase. The truce remains officially in place, but it has not ended the violence. Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry reported in late August that at least 1,296 people had been killed since the ceasefire began, and puts the cumulative toll since Oct. 7, 2023, at more than 73,400. Israel says it continues to target militants who took part in the 2023 attack.

Israel itself is heading to national elections in late October, the first since the attack, and it remains engaged on multiple fronts, including Lebanon, Syria and Iran. The U.S. midterm elections follow on Nov. 3.

The Shift in Public Opinion

The clearest measure of how far American opinion has moved is Gallup’s long-running question on Middle East sympathies.

In simple terms: Gallup asks Americans whether, in the Middle East situation, their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians. It has asked the question every year since 2001.

In February 2023, eight months before the attack, 54% of Americans said they sympathized more with Israelis and 31% with Palestinians. Gallup’s February 2026 survey found the reverse for the first time in its trend: 41% sided more with Palestinians and 36% with Israelis.

The partisan split is stark. Democrats sided with Palestinians 65% to 17%. Republicans sided with Israelis 70% to 13%. Independents leaned toward Palestinians for the first time in Gallup’s history, and Gallup described Americans aged 35 to 54 as having shifted decisively in the past year, 46% to 28%.

That partisan gap is the key to understanding how the issue is playing out. It has become a fault line inside the Democratic Party and a wedge Republicans are using against Democrats in general elections.

The Political Machine: AIPAC’s Record Spending

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee did little direct election spending for most of its history. That changed after 2018, and in the 2022 and 2024 cycles AIPAC deployed roughly $100 million, helping defeat Democratic incumbents it considered hostile to Israel.

In 2026, AFP reported in late August that AIPAC was spending more than any other outside group on the midterms, with its total running past $54 million, largely through its super PAC, the United Democracy Project (UDP).

In simple terms: a super PAC can raise and spend unlimited sums on ads for or against candidates, as long as it does not coordinate directly with campaigns. Much of UDP’s advertising has not mentioned Israel at all, focusing instead on candidates’ records on other issues.

AIPAC has rejected the suggestion that its influence is waning, noting that hundreds of the candidates it backed have won their primaries. The results of its most expensive bets, however, have been mixed.

Examples: Four Races That Defined the Cycle

New Jersey’s 11th District (February). UDP spent about $2.3 million attacking former Rep. Tom Malinowski in the special Democratic primary to replace now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill. The ads tied Malinowski to a 2019 vote funding immigration enforcement. The beneficiary was progressive organizer Analilia Mejia, the only candidate in the race who called Israel’s conduct in Gaza a genocide. Mejia won the primary by fewer than 900 votes and went on to win the April special election. Malinowski blamed AIPAC’s spending for his loss.

Illinois (March). AIPAC-linked groups spent roughly $22 million across four open Chicago-area House primaries and won two. In the 9th District, Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, an outspoken AIPAC critic, beat the AIPAC-backed candidate, while Palestinian American activist Kat Abughazaleh finished second.

Kentucky’s 4th District (May). On the Republican side, the result ran the other way. Rep. Thomas Massie, the House Republican most critical of aid to Israel, lost his primary 54% to 45% to Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. Pro-Israel groups spent more than $15.8 million in a race that became the most expensive House primary in history, at about $32 million overall. Trump’s opposition to Massie was likely the larger factor with GOP primary voters, but the outcome signaled that open criticism of Israel remains a disqualifier in Republican primaries.

Michigan Senate (August). The highest-profile test came in Michigan, home to Dearborn and the 2024 “Uncommitted” movement. Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit public health director backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, made criticism of Israel’s conduct in Gaza and of AIPAC’s support for his opponent central to his campaign. He narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens, who had the endorsements of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, retiring Sen. Gary Peters and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Impact: Party Behavior Is Changing

The shift is visible beyond individual races.

Fundraising pledges. Several House Democrats who previously accepted AIPAC money, including Reps. Deborah Ross and Valerie Foushee of North Carolina and Morgan McGarvey of Kentucky, have said they will not take it in the 2026 cycle.
Votes on aid. According to NPR, more than 100 House Democrats voted in July to cut aid to Israel, a number that would have been difficult to imagine in October 2023.
Republican dissent. A smaller, vocal faction of Republicans, including former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Massie, has criticized AIPAC’s role, framing it as “America First” versus foreign influence. AIPAC and its allies have described that rhetoric as invoking antisemitic tropes. Polls show Republican voters still overwhelmingly support Israel.

Analysis: Support Is Not the Same as Victory

The evidence shows an issue that has gained traction in Democratic primaries, where the electorate is younger and more sympathetic to Palestinians. Whether that translates to general elections is a separate question, and Michigan will be the clearest test.

A Fox News poll of Michigan voters conducted Aug. 6-10 found Republican Mike Rogers leading El-Sayed 51% to 47%, with 54% of voters saying they were very or extremely concerned that El-Sayed’s positions are too extreme. A later WDIV/Detroit News poll of likely voters showed a closer race, 45.8% to 44.4%.

The same Fox poll contains a finding that cuts the other way: 55% of Michigan voters said they favor halting military aid to Israel, compared with 44% who favor continuing it.

In simple terms: a majority of voters in a key swing state agree with El-Sayed’s core position on military aid, yet he trails. That suggests Gaza can win a Democratic primary without being enough to carry a general election, where voters weigh other issues and the candidate’s overall profile.

Republicans are betting on that gap. Rogers has courted Jewish Democrats uneasy with El-Sayed’s rhetoric and his association with streamer Hasan Piker, and Trump and Vice President JD Vance have attacked El-Sayed directly. The Republican Jewish Coalition has called him the most antisemitic Senate candidate in the country, a characterization El-Sayed rejects; he has said Hamas committed war crimes while maintaining his genocide accusation against Israel’s government.

For AIPAC, the cycle has shown both reach and limits. Its money remains decisive in many races, particularly Republican ones. But its spending has itself become a campaign issue in Democratic contests, and in at least one race, NJ-11, it appears to have helped the candidate it least wanted.

Conclusion

On Oct. 7, 2023, the political question in Washington was how strongly to stand with Israel. Three years later, the question in many Democratic primaries is what U.S. support should look like after the destruction in Gaza, and whether accepting pro-Israel PAC money is a political risk.

That is a significant change in a short time. It is not, so far, a realignment. Republican voters remain firmly pro-Israel, AIPAC-backed candidates still win most of their races, and the most prominent Gaza-focused candidate in the country trails in a state where most voters agree with him on military aid.

The Nov. 3 results, particularly in Michigan, will show whether the shift in public sympathy is reaching the general electorate or remains concentrated in Democratic primaries. Either way, the 2028 presidential field will inherit a debate that looks very different from the one that began three years ago today.

Key Takeaways

Gallup’s February 2026 poll found Americans more sympathetic to Palestinians (41%) than Israelis (36%) for the first time since 2001, reversing a 54%-31% Israeli advantage in 2023.
AIPAC is the largest outside spender of the 2026 midterms, but its results are mixed: wins in Kentucky and parts of Illinois, setbacks in NJ-11, Illinois’ 9th District and Michigan.
In the Republican Party, criticism of Israel remains costly, as Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary loss showed.
In Michigan, 55% of voters favor halting military aid to Israel, yet Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed trails Republican Mike Rogers in recent polling.
Gaza is shaping Democratic primaries more than general elections, and Nov. 3 will test whether that holds.